Is Catalonia going to become independent?

The Catalan parliament meets on Tuesday 10th October, to decide whether to do an unilateral declaration of independence (UDI).

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The separatists have a majority in the Catalan parliament, but some of them are nervous that a UDI will hurt the Catalan economy. Others take the view that it's now or never, and though in theory the European Union will shun them, in practice it would hurt the EU to lose another region in addition to the UK.

However - never underestimate the EU's capacity for doing foolish things. Take Brexit - the rational view is to come to a deal with the UK because it's a huge economy and one of the only sources of consumer demand in Europe. But the EU is behaving like a colonial power and is determined to crush the Brits (like that has ever worked in history!) and it looks like a no deal, which will hurt the economies of Ireland, the Netherlands, and Belgium very badly. It is likely they'll be equally harsh with Catalonia - to discourage others.

The last time Europe saw a UDI was in Kosovo. And Kosovo is recognised by France and Germany (though not by Spain). A Catalan declaration of independence will therefore put the Europeans in a difficult position.

If Catalonia goes for it, the markets will tank, the euro will likely tank (as both Spain and Catalonia are in the euro), and gold, the US Dollar and bitcoin should rise. We live in exciting times!